Monday, November 3, 2008

Electoral College Predictions


Electoral College Predictions

11:30 AM EST on Monday, Nov 3, 2008. I have completed my predictions and urge you to submit yours in the comments section. There are several good sites where you can play around with the map, but none where a guy (or gal) can copy and paste the map (that I have been able to find).

That being said, here are my predictions (270 to win):

McPalin: SC, GA, Al, MS, TN, KY,WV,OH,IN,MO,AR,LA,TX,OK,KS,NE,SD,ND,MT,WY,ID,UT,AZ,The state where you can see Russia from your window.

This totals 205 votes.

Obama- HI,CA,OR,WA,NV,CO,NM,IA,MN,WI,IL,MI,FL,NC,VA,DC,MD,DE,NJ,PA,NY,CT,MA,RI,VT,NH,ME

This total 333 votes.

Some key states: Florida and Ohio will be too close to call most of the night and will go in opposite directions. For this reason it won't be until about 12pm est that this thing is called for Obama, but I hope I am wrong about that.

I just can't see Obama winning in Indiana or West Virginia- for reasons of race. Missouri is where I hold out hope of being surprised.

People under thirty-five, African-Americans, and Latinos are going to put Obama over the top, along with the usual tree hugging folk who voted for Mondale and McGovern.

I think this is a somewhat conservative estimate. Just to put it in perspective, Obama could lose Florida, Pennsylvania, Colorado and New Mexico from my projections and still win 271 Electoral votes. I just don't see a viable path for McCain.

What will grow ever more important will be the congress. There, I see the Dems picking up 8 seats in the Senate and 29 in the House. If the Dems are able to get to 60 seats in the Senate then the Republicans will not be able to use the filibuster and thus, Dems will actually be able to get some important things accomplished. Immigration reform, health care, workers rights, etc will all be on the table.
I will have a bottle of Champaign and a bottle of Vodka, just in case.

19 comments:

puddy said...

i don't see NC, VA, IA, nor FL going Obama. however i admire and envy your optimism.

Sal Kilmister said...

Why not Kreplech? He is ahead in all 4 of those states. In the case of IA by a very safe margin. The math is the math.

Sal Kilmister said...

Puddy- Obama would still win with 271 even if he lost those states.

puddy said...

i guess i just believe history over polls. also, don't forget new hampshire. polls aren't just occasionally wrong.

Sal Kilmister said...

Puddy- The polls are just occasionally wrong. New Hampshire is also different as you were predicting a primary and not a general election, so you can't rely on issues and party ID as a predictor. Also, NH has an open primary system, meaning it is even more difficult to predict because many undecided voters don't even know what ticket they are going to vote.

Polls are right far far far more often then they are wrong. See the 2006 campaign as an example. They were also almost dead on in 2004. Just go to www.electoral-vote.com and click this day in 2004 and compare it to the outcome.

Sal Kilmister said...

If you don't believe in polls you don't believe in science.

Mauigirl said...

LOL, I'm in market research - polls try to be as scientific as they can, but you never know for sure. It all depends on the sampling.

And remember the old saying, there are lies, damned lies and statistics.

Seriously, I hope to heaven the polls are right and aren't missing some big piece of this. I was heartened by seeing one respected poll (I forget which) showed its track record over the past 5 or so elections, and in each case the one they originally predicted did win. And they're predicting Obama. Interestingly, they had been predicting Bush over Gore in 2000 and that was the only one they got kind of wrong - because Gore ended up doing better in the end than they expected. But let's face it, whether by hook or by crook, he did lose, so they predicted correctly even then.

puddy said...

i admit you have a lot more knowledge on the topic than i do. and you should. maybe my skepticism is unfounded. given your expertise in the subject, your optimism is settling.

"If you don't believe in polls you don't believe in science." - that's a silly thing to say.

puddy said...

oh, and if you're wrong about any of this, i'm going to flame you on this thread. nothing too bad, i'll probably just write "eat it". that being said... i really hope you're right.

Sal Kilmister said...

Maui- Good points. In 2000, even if you predicted Gore, it was still right if it was within the margin of error. That is why I think tomorrow will be easy. According to the Real Clear Politics poll of polls, Obama is going to win by about 7-8 points in the overall spread. Say their average margin of error is roughly 3 or so points. One poll has Obama up as much as 13 points and one shows him as low as 2. Those both seem like outliers.

Almost every other poll shows Obama up by about 7 or 8 points. But take sollace in this, even if every other poll is wrong, Obama is still up by 2, with millions of votes already "in the bank" due to early voting.

Even if all the undecided voters broke for McPalin, Obama would still win if he holds on to his supporters.

There has not been a major poll that shown McPalin with a lead since Sept, and more polls were taken since that time then during the entire 2004 election.

Furthermore, you must look at intensity of support. According to

Chuck Todd: McCain has a 47%-39% fav/unfav rating, while Obama’s is larger at 56%-35%. But what’s striking is the intensity gap -- almost twice as many respondents (44%) rate Obama “very positive” than they do for McCain (24%).

That is huge. The candidate with the most intensity almost always wins. It is difficult to get a ground game going when people are voting against another person and not for the person they are supporting. This is why Bush had a huge advantage over Kerry. Many Kerry supporters (myself included) were voting against Bush. Kerry was my 3 or 4th choice out of the Dem field that year.

Krepuddy- Polls are scientific thus if you don't trust polls you don't trust science. People that discount polls seemingly always gloss over the margin of error.

themom said...

Being the eternal optimist...this will be a landslide! After reading "Mudflats" blog - Obama is within 3 points of McCain and closing fast. Interesting. WV (where I was raised) will never vote for Obama - and that is because of race unfortunately. I now live in Ohio - and we are going BLUE!!! I feel FL may go Obama also. Wouldn't it be great if Arizona went blue also. I would die a happy camper!

Dick Tremayne said...

I believe Obama will take FL. On a side note, a group of Dems is staging an election party at a country & western bar in the Jacksonville Landing called Maverick's. It is run by a huge GOP supporter who puts out plenty of right wing propaganda. Should be a nice slap in the face.

alzaido alzaido said...

Dick, it won't be a slap in the face. That Repub pub owner will be happy that his bar is full. Perhaps a bit bitter sweet.

My prediction:
Obama: 406
McCain: 132

Sal Kilmister said...

Alzaido- I applaud your optimism. I am actually thinking of removing NC from blue to red and subtracting 13 points. Either way, as long as Obama get to 270 I'll sleep well tonight.

Sal Kilmister said...

get=gets. lousy keypad....

puddy said...

278 - 260 Obama.

Sal Kilmister said...

I really hope your wrong, Krepuddy.

puddy said...

me too!

libhom said...

Ron Paul is on the ballot in Montana. I don't know why he is, but it makes it likely Obama will win there.