Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Early Exit Poll Numbers...

Scroll to the bottom for the latest exit poll numbers.

From CBS:

Voters' loyalty to their chosen candidate was high, as more than six in ten (64 percent) Clinton voters said they would not be satisfied if Obama ended up the Democratic nominee, and more than half of Obama voters (54 percent) said they would not be satisfied if Clinton won the nomination. Overall, 70 percent of Pennsylvania Democrats would be satisfied if Clinton were the nominee, while 64 percent would be satisfied with Obama.

Now the question I have is would these voters actually vote McCain in November because their candidate didn't win? We all know that Hillary supporters are generally older females and people with lower level education (HS diploma). Obama backers are overwhelmingly younger and college graduates. I can honestly see the older crowd going over to McCain and maybe some of the illiterate ones as well but I find it hard to believe that an educated democrat would switch aisles because Hillary stole the nomination. Am I wrong in this logic? Only time will time I guess.

UPDATE: Numbers show that voter turnout will be at least 52% which would be almost DOUBLE the number from 2004. 17% made up their minds in the last 3 days and 10% decided today.
67% thought Clinton attacked Obama unfairly. 49% thought Obama attacked Clinton unfairly.

UPDATE: Here's a breakdown of exit polling numbers highlighting gender, race, education and income: (From HuffPo)

race and age:
white 18-29 53-47 clinton
white 30-44 53-47 clinton
white 45-59 59-41 clinton
blacks 92-8 obama
high school 65-35 clinton
some college 50-49 obama
college grad 55-45 obama
postgrad 54-46 obama
family income:
under 15K 51-49 obama
15-30k 56-44 clinton
30-50 57-43 clinton
50-75 53-47 clinton
75-100 54-46 obama
100-150 59-39 obama
200 plus 68-32 obama

UPDATE: 5:58 pst. MSNBC just projected Hillary the winner with 3% reporting. What the final number will be is the big question. It's 55-45 right now.
Side note, why does MSNBC feel the need to let Pat Buchanan spew his shit on their airwaves?

UPDATE: 6% in and the margin in 53-47 Clinton. Weeeee this should be an interesting night!

UPDATE: 10% in and we're now back at 55-45. Still closer than I think Clinton wanted so far.

UPDATE: 15% in and the big number is 53-47.

UPDATE: 20% reporting and it's still fairly close at 53-47. Speeches from the candidates will be coming soon.

UPDATE: 38% and the number is 54-46. Go Obama!

UPDATE: Halfway home at 50% reporting and we stand at 54-46.

MSNBC is reporting most of the rural counties have reported and that Philly and the surrounding burbs have not. This tends to look like the number might slide a bit to Obama when it's all said and done. We'll see.

UPDATE: 73% reporting and we're at 54-46.

UPDATE: 85% in and the number is 55-45. It looks like the margin will fall somewhere between 8 and 10. I was hoping for closer to 6 but who am I to bitch. It seems all but hopeless for Clinton in the end.

UPDATE: With 95% reporting it at 55-45, it looks like Hillary will win by 10. Not bad but not nearly good enough. She needed to trounce him in PA and 200,000 or so votes isn't going to do it. Obama will cover that number in NC and then some the polls are showing. He has too much money for you Hillary. You won't win Indiana by a margin needed to catch up. It's time to pack it in and ride off into the sunset.


.e. said...

At this point, I can not vote for Hillary should she win the nomination.

Don't know how things will play out in the general, but it could be that the race getting this far helps the dems by registering 100,000's of new democrat voters in Pennsylvania.

Bradda said...

Would you then vote for McCain .E. or for someone else?

.e. said...

That's a good question. I'd probably vote Nader again.

.e. said...

I really liked McCain 2000. I don't think I can vote for McCain 2008 given the world situation right now.

Bradda said...

McCain 2000 is a VERY different animal than McCain 2008, I agree .E. and it's nice to hear people are actually seeing the difference.

Unknown said...

How do they determine who wins with only 3% in? Solely based on exit polls?

Bradda said...

They're oracles. I'm not claiming my numbers are any more legit than MSNBC, I'm just reporting what I see. We do have a stupid election system if that's what your implying.

Kup said...

e. you will not have to vote clinton, and if you did, you would. that goes for all of ye, unless you want to die. mccain might equal death.

Anonymous said...

YOu stupid mother fucker!

Bradda said...

"YOu stupid mother fucker!"

What exactly are you saying anonymous?